About the book: 2018 / New work by Philip Tetlock, a famous psychologist, specialist in the field of political psychology, created in collaboration with the famous science journalist Dan Gardner has already been called "the most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking Slow, Decide Fast." Using the vast, urgently relevant material of modern geopolitics, the authors study the issue of the reliability of a wide variety of forecasts - from political to everyday ones - and offer a practical and effective system of thinking that will allow you to develop the ability to make forecasts that come true. Set priorities correctly, break complex problems into series small and completely solvable, finding a balance between looking from the outside and from the inside of the problem - these are just a few life hacks that will help you correctly predict the future!